By: Katie Gomez

As markets swing wildly and economic uncertainty grips the nation, a provocative historical theory may offer insight into what lies ahead. The Fourth Turning, a generational framework developed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe in their seminal 1997 book, outlines an 80-year cycle in Anglo-American history. This cycle is divided into four “turnings”: the High, the Awakening, the Unraveling, and finally, the Crisis—the Fourth Turning.

Each turning lasts approximately 20 to 25 years and reflects the evolution of generational archetypes as they move through life stages. History reveals that each Fourth Turning has culminated in a major national crisis that redefines the country’s institutions and economy. The American Revolution (1773–1794), the Civil War (1860–1865), and the Great Depression/World War II era (1929–1946) all represent past Fourth Turnings. Today, indicators such as record-high wealth inequality, political dysfunction, and rapid technological disruption mirror the conditions that preceded these historic periods of upheaval.

Strauss and Howe projected that the current Fourth Turning would begin around 2008 with the global financial crisis—a prediction that appears increasingly prescient. Now, with Donald Trump returning to the presidency in 2025, the U.S. may be entering the peak of this period, setting the stage for profound transformation in its economic and institutional landscape.

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Are We in a Fourth Turning Now?

The 2008 financial crisis served as a clear catalyst, shaking public confidence and initiating a prolonged period of economic fragility. Since then, signs of crisis have intensified:

• Institutional distrust is at historic levels. A 2024 Gallup poll shows only 27% of Americans trust the federal government, 12% trust Congress, and just 38% trust the Supreme Court.
• Economic fragility persists behind a façade of prosperity, with debt exceeding 120% of GDP, ballooning central bank balance sheets, and vulnerabilities exposed by the 2023 regional bank failures.
• Political polarization mirrors Civil War–era divisions. Over 80% of Americans view the opposing political party as a fundamental threat, according to Pew Research.
• Cultural fragmentation has deepened. Americans now live in echo chambers defined by divergent news sources, social circles, and regional ideologies.

Generational alignment also supports the theory:

1. Boomers (Prophets)—now in leadership roles—provide moral certainty amid crisis.
2. Generation X (Nomads)—pragmatic and skeptical—act as resilient managers.
3. Millennials (Heroes)—community-driven and institution-builders—come of age during upheaval.
4. Gen Z (Artists)—adaptive and cautious—form their worldview during uncertainty.

This generational constellation mirrors those of past Fourth Turnings, reinforcing the idea that we’re nearing a climactic chapter in the cycle.

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Trump’s Second Term and the Fourth Turning Role

Donald Trump’s second term could prove pivotal within this theoretical framework. His economic agenda—focused on reshoring manufacturing, restructuring trade policy, and potentially altering the Federal Reserve’s role—signals the kind of institutional disruption typical of a Fourth Turning.

As a Baby Boomer, Trump represents the Prophet archetype—leaders who often emerge during crises to challenge norms and lead structural reform. Historical parallels abound:

• Franklin D. Roosevelt reshaped financial systems during the Great Depression.
• Abraham Lincoln redefined federal-state dynamics during the Civil War.
• George Washington established foundational institutions after the Revolution.

Trump’s second term may mark a similar inflection point, one that could fundamentally alter monetary policy, trade systems, and America’s role in global markets for generations.

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Investment Strategy During the Fourth Turning

Investors navigating this turbulent era must adopt both defensive and opportunistic postures. Key areas of potential growth include:

• Domestic manufacturing and critical infrastructure
• Defense and energy independence initiatives
• Technologies that promote national resilience and sovereignty

Meanwhile, defensive plays should prioritize companies with strong balance sheets, minimal reliance on global supply chains, and durable business models. Diversification across asset classes, hard assets, and low-leverage strategies can help preserve capital in the face of systemic shocks.

Importantly, Fourth Turnings often produce rare generational buying opportunities: fundamentally sound businesses priced at deep discounts, emerging sectors tied to new institutional needs, and entirely new industries born from the ashes of the old.

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Economic and Market Transformations Ahead

According to the Fourth Turning framework, we are entering an era of sweeping change:

• The dollar’s dominance may erode due to geopolitical shifts, the rise of central bank digital currencies, and new trade settlement systems.
• Debt burdens may be restructured through financial repression, monetization, or defaults, redistributing liabilities across society.
• Energy markets will be reshaped by the need for energy security and innovation in renewable and decentralized systems.
• Social programs and entitlements are likely to undergo dramatic reform to adapt to demographic realities.

These shifts could redefine not only how markets function, but also how wealth is distributed and generated in the decades ahead.

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How to Navigate a Fourth Turning

While The Fourth Turning offers a compelling lens, investors must avoid deterministic thinking. Overreliance on predictive narratives can lead to confirmation bias and missed opportunities.

Instead, pair generational awareness with solid fundamental analysis. History suggests the most acute part of the crisis may unfold in the next 2–3 years. Tactical agility, skepticism, and strategic foresight will be key. This is a time for bold yet informed positioning.

The greatest opportunities often arise amid the deepest uncertainty. For investors who remain clear-eyed and adaptable, the Fourth Turning may offer not only risks—but also a historic chance to build wealth and legacy in a reshaped world.