Is TikTok Actually Getting Banned this time?
Is TikTok Actually Getting Banned this time?
By Katie Gomez
Rumors of TikTok’s ban have swirled for years, but could this time be different? TikTok is more than an entertainment hub—it’s a lifeline for thousands of users who generate income through influencing, advertising, and entrepreneurship. Its creator fund has turned the platform into a full-time business opportunity for many.
So, when the Supreme Court announced that January 15, 2025, would mark TikTok’s removal from app stores, the uproar was immediate and warranted. This decision not only threatens our freedom of speech through video creation but also undermines countless livelihoods, especially in a struggling economy.
The potential ban has already sent shockwaves through user sentiment and the stock market. In this article, I’ll explore the market’s reaction, delve into the politics and rationale behind the ban, and predict the likely impact on both users and the economy if the ban goes into effect in January.
Why is TikTok getting Banned this time?
The most recent updates have announced that under President Biden’s April 2024 legislation, ByteDance must sell TikTok to a government-approved buyer by January 15 or face a complete U.S. shutdown. The national security-focused legislation aims to prevent potential Chinese government access to U.S. user data. Without compliance, app stores would remove TikTok, and ByteDance would be barred from providing updates, ultimately rendering the platform unstable and unusable. With no takers and the deadline fast approaching, it may leave TikTok doomed to end up with the same fate as its social media predecessors, such as Vine, Musically, or Myspace, within the month.
However, despite the looming deadline, little information has been presented to the public about if this is really happening. This leads users to question the validity of this ban.
This lack of reporting on the ban’s updates has led to an alarming amount of ignorance. Despite this January deadline looming, 51% of frequent TikTok users remain unaware of the impending restrictions, according to Group RFZ’s September 2024 study. Among those who acknowledge the ban’s existence, 42% of users ignore the ruling, stating they plan to maintain their current usage patterns even after implementation.
Since the app’s banishment has been threatened so many times that it’s become akin to the “boy who cried wolf, ” why should we believe it this time? Users are forced to turn to their favorite creators for answers, but opinions are split; many post videos refuting the ban’s validity, while others announce their departure from the app.
It won’t be long before this ignorance leads to anger and revolt because people are already fed up and need a win. We will not stand to sit back and watch the Supreme Court take more rights away. As if the Supreme Court’s previous rulings (i.e., Roe v Wade overturn) haven’t caused enough riot and polarization, the new ruling to ban TikTok now challenges freedom of speech and the right to entrepreneurship. Elon Musk spoke out against the effort to ban TikTok, claiming, “This is not what America stands for, it would be in conflict with the 1st amendment, the rights America claims to stand for.”
Despite the recent revolt to fight the appeal, the unanimous ruling on Friday, December 6, by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., rejected TikTok’s argument that the law is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment rights of its users. TikTok has now asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the appeals court’s decision, and as creators have taken their heads out of the sand and stopped the ban, the fight is still alive. However, as TikTok is struggling to keep its place in the app store, other social media platforms are circling like vultures waiting to feast on opportunities in their wake.
When one app closes, another opens
TikTok has become the #1 social media platform, providing information faster than Facebook, videos shorter than YouTube, and influencers more lucrative opportunities than Instagram. However, as the ban news spreads, Meta has never looked better. After living in TikTok’s shadow trying to catch up with its incredible AI advances, algorithmic ads, and thriving influencer program/creator funds, Meta has seized this opportunity to propel its way back into the spotlight and boost market value.
The stock market backs this sentiment, as Meta’s stock hit a record high Friday, climbing 2.4% following the federal appeal court’s decision. Meta has signaled significant infrastructure investment plans for 2025, driven by its ambitious AI initiatives. CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s recent Threads post highlighted Meta AI’s expanding reach, claiming nearly 600 million monthly active users and announcing the upcoming release of Llama 3.3, their latest large language model. (Kolodny, 2024)
However, social media has not been the only one impacted; since TikTok Shop now rivals prices and the popularity of Amazon shipments, the broad tech sector has also seen dramatic shifts. Since its release in September 2023, TikTok Shop has allowed users to shop directly from the app hassle-free, kindling an impulse-based e-commerce environment more lucrative than Instagram’s partnership with Shopify. Its attractive discounts, fast delivery, and seamless integration make it a serious contender to Amazon. This sector shows similar strength, with Amazon reaching new highs (up 49% year-to-date) and the Nasdaq gaining 32% in 2024. Apart from a slight pullback in Apple shares, this tech rally underscores investor confidence in major tech platforms potentially benefiting from TikTok’s regulatory challenges.
Political Differences
Looking back on how this ban came about, it seems fishy how politics became so intertwined with this business decision to ban a social media app. Knowing Zuckerberg’s affiliation with Biden and the Democratic Party, the timing is uncanny. Traders saw in March of this year, the market began to showcase TikTok surpassing Meta in popularity and value, and not weeks later, President Joe Biden signed a law that would require ByteDance to divest from the app or companies such as Apple and Google, as well as internet hosting providers, would be forced to stop supporting it, unequivocally stripping TikTok of its place in the app store.
That said, now that Donald Trump is president-elect, the Meta CEO wants to follow the new guy in power to propel Meta further. According to a recent Fox News report, Zuckerberg arranged a recent dinner with the president-elect during which he admitted he is actively seeking a role working with the Trump administration (even though his cabinet has been vocal about fighting the TikTok ban) to launch his company’s new Ray-Ban camera-equipped Specs. This leads me to believe this whole ban could easily be a hoax concocted to drive away the competition and instill fear in the public about losing TikTok while Meta’s end-of-year reports are at their peak.
Market Predictions: Where do we go from here?
Since TikTok has appealed for the 90-day review, the ban will likely be postponed to next Spring, if not forgotten entirely, with Trump’s support. However, market strategists are advised to implement proactive measures rather than a wait-and-see approach. Traders are encouraged to
diversify platform presence, test content performance across different platforms, and identify influencers with established multi-platform success. Campaign testing and performance measurement are crucial for understanding how messaging and creative content may need to be adapted for different platforms. The situation reinforces the importance of maintaining a diversified social media strategy rather than relying heavily on any platform.
Additionally, the potential ban could trigger a significant shift in the social media landscape, with YouTube emerging as the primary beneficiary. Among TikTok’s 170 million U.S. users, 46% indicate they’ll migrate to YouTube, while 38% plan to use YouTube Shorts. Instagram (39%) and Facebook (30%) also stand to gain substantial user migration, particularly among Gen Z users seeking product recommendations and entertainment content.
This transition could fundamentally alter overall social media consumption patterns, with 37% of users indicating they would reduce their social media usage post-ban. The impact appears more pronounced among key demographics, with 42% of women and 46% of 18-24 year olds planning to decrease their social media engagement. YouTube’s algorithmic content discovery system, which mirrors TikTok’s approach, positions it as the natural successor for user engagement and brand marketing opportunities. However, for those who can’t transition successfully, it means fewer content creators, leading to significant shifts in the job sector and a more dramatic response to inflation and recession predictions in 2025.
Trading volumes have surged following the federal appeals court decision, with institutional investors increasing positions in both companies. Technical indicators, particularly the MACD and RSI, suggest continued upward momentum, though some analysts note potential short-term overbought conditions. The market anticipates this regulatory action could reshape digital advertising landscapes, with major platforms positioned to capture significant portions of TikTok’s estimated $8 billion U.S. advertising market.
While uncertainty remains about the ban’s implementation, the market has already begun pricing in significant changes. Meta and YouTube stand as clear beneficiaries, with Meta’s stock reaching record highs and YouTube positioned to capture nearly half of TikTok’s 170 million U.S. users. However, the political undertones and corporate maneuvering behind this ban raise questions about the intersection of technology regulation and business competition. Whether the prohibition materializes or becomes another false alarm, its impact has already catalyzed significant market movements and accelerated the evolution of competing platforms’ AI and content delivery capabilities. Stay updated with Trade Ideas to navigate this uncertain landscape in 2025.
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