By: Katie Gomez

Traders who weathered the past few weeks of market chaos—spanning the Halloween effect and election week—can finally take a deep breath: we made it. Just in time for the holiday season to bring a sense of joy and reprieve, the market is not only stabilizing but booming! Thanksgiving arrives with much to celebrate, offering traders opportunities to capitalize on favorable conditions.

In this article, we’ll explore three key factors fueling the market upturn and how traders can leverage these opportunities this Thanksgiving with an attitude of gratitude.

Election Markets 

The first thing traders should be grateful for this Thanksgiving season is the driving force behind market sentiment right now: the election. This election race has had all of us stressed to the max; the stock market has had a tumultuous quarter, but since Trump became our president-elect, the market has been looking stronger than ever. 

Election results always influence the market, but things went a bit differently this year. After a candidate is elected, fund managers go into total recall mode, altering their course of action to match the president-elect’s policies. However, since the stock market had predicted Trump’s win in the weeks before he was elected, many traders have been riding the red wave since October and are now ahead of the game, reaping the benefits. Since momentum began weeks ago, investors who fell behind (bet on the wrong candidate) must now play catch up if they hope to ride that wave of momentum to the bank.

Fund managers and day traders have been working overtime to course correct, putting their focus back on hot stocks and assets following Trump’s win. For example, after Trump announced his cabinet full of men and women who are outspokenly pro-crypto investors, cryptocurrency is hotter than ever, with Bitcoin leading the charge. Bitcoin skyrocketed to a record-high value of $82,000 the following Monday after the election, expecting other cryptocurrencies to ride that same wave in a favorable regulatory environment following the election of Trump and his cabinet. The world’s largest and most popular cryptocurrency has more than doubled from its year-low point, $38,505, to its highest, $82,527 (Indyk, 2024).

On the other hand, traders following the previous wave of sentiment toward alternative energy sources as part of their portfolio might be doing an about-face. As our new president-elect’s motto is “drill, baby, drill,” I think it is safe to say green energy should be put on the back burner for a bit. Election markets essentially give traders a guide on how to trade based on predicted policy changes, a cheat sheet on the dos and don’ts of how to to trade successfully these next few months. While long-term investors will not need to course correct as dramatically for swing, day, and retail traders, now is the time to so talk to your fund managers, review your portfolio, and see where you should be altering your plan to election sentiment and ride the red wave as long as the election results continue to influence market sentiment. 

S&P 500 Index Stats & Predictions

For our longer-term investors, a stable S&P 500 after this election is something to be thankful for. Given the volatility we experienced in October, fund managers will be grateful to see the current index numbers. While the S&P has remained the same since Trump’s election, Goldman Sachs Research’s prediction shows much more going on beneath the surface. The outlook has significantly changed for certain sectors, and the overall index will steadily increase in 2025. 

According to David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, the S&P 500 is predicted to climb approximately 9% next year. In his team’s report, he wrote: “Our researchers forecast growth in earnings-per-share of 11% in 2025 and 7% the year after, though Kostin points out that those estimates may change as more about the new administration’s policy agenda is revealed. However, robust earnings growth should drive continued equity market appreciation into next year” (Goldman Sachs, 2024). 

Holiday Effect 

Finally, the cherry on top of this gratitude pie is the time of the year to trade. As holiday shopping, travel, and quality time with family become the forefront of America’s minds, traders are getting ready to close up their portfolios until New Year’s. This explains why November and December showcase the lowest trading volumes, making it the least volatile time of the year to trade. 

Historically, November is the most lucrative month for traders. Since 1990, this month has been known not only for S&P increases and election market swings but also for being one of the most bullish months due to its low volatility and volume. Traders should seize the opportunities these next weeks offer to try new strategies, take risks, and earn extra money for holiday shopping before closing out their portfolio in December. Even winter months will not be able to cool off the heat emanating from the market right now; take advantage of it while it lasts! 

As we gather around our Thanksgiving tables this year, traders have plenty to celebrate beyond turkey and pumpkin pie. The market’s response to Trump’s election victory has created exciting opportunities in cryptocurrencies and traditional sectors. With Goldman Sachs projecting strong S&P 500 growth ahead and the seasonal calm of the holiday months providing a stable trading environment, the stars have aligned for novice and experienced traders. 

Whether you are riding the post-election momentum, adjusting your portfolio for 2025’s projected gains, or taking advantage of November’s historically low volatility, now is the perfect time to position yourself for success. So before you carve that turkey, take a moment to appreciate these favorable market conditions – and, more importantly, take action to make the most of them. After all, in trading, as in life, gratitude paired with strategic action is the recipe for success.

The most successful traders focus on the good, and there is a lot of good happening in the market right now; there are so many things to be thankful for, but it means nothing if you don’t act toward them. Do not let November pass you by in the blink of an eye; celebrate Thanksgiving trader style by visiting Trade Ideas today to set you up with all the tools and strategies to make this Thanksgiving your most lucrative one yet. 

References 

https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-surges-record-high-trump-bets-2024-11-11

https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-trumps-election-is-forecast-to-affect-us-stocks