By Katie Gomez

One of our most intelligent and talented traders here at Trade Ideas, Michael Nauss, has created a substack compiling lessons he has learned during his trading career. In his most recent article, he discusses how many traders appear unable to move on, which is a massive detriment to success in this business. The stock market waits for no trader, constantly in flux and evolving with time, so if the market can’t stay stagnant, why should we? 

Human beings are creatures of habit, ever clinging to the familiar. However, this tendency to remain magnetized to the known or comfortable is an obstacle to our growth and, in turn, our success. While the past helps us review our choices and possible mistakes to learn from, investors and traders who rely too heavily on past data can misread current market conditions and miss out on new opportunities. On the other hand, successful traders understand the importance of constantly adapting their strategies and remaining alert to any new developments and trends in the market (Nauss, 2023).

By adapting to the market, investors and traders can make informed decisions based on current market conditions instead of relying solely on past performance, emotions, or gut instinct. So how do we break free of the chains of the past? How do we move beyond the known? How do we adapt? 

Adapting to the market is similar to Darwin’s idea of natural selection—only the strong survive. Market adaptation is an uncomfortable shift requiring you to make certain sacrifices. For instance, it requires you to be more open-minded, look past or challenge old biases, broaden your perspective, and be willing to learn and try things that you’re new at, even if you fail. Adapting proves especially difficult for more experienced investors because checking ego at the door is difficult. In addition, after a certain amount of time put into the market, it’s easy to think we know everything there is to know, even though we don’t. Adapting can involve:

• Staying up-to-date with market news and trends.
• Analyzing financial data and charts.
• Adjusting investment strategies as needed.

As Nauss points out in his article, he’s learned from experience that it’s easy to get stuck in our ways and resist change, but the only person you’re hurting by doing that is yourself. Even if some old ways still work for you, stick with them. On the other hand, clinging to outdated strategies that no longer serve the purpose of growth will only end up harming you in the long run. “You have to know when you have lost the war and understand when it is time to move on.” 

He exemplifies this reluctance to adapt as the quote heard along Wall St. Nauss further references the selection, “the generals fight the last war.” This quote has aged well and it still offers truth today. This quote references military leaders’ tendency to base their tactics on past conflicts rather than adapting to the current situation, just as traders base decisions solely on past market trends (Nauss, 2023). 

Those able to adapt to changing market conditions are more likely to be successful in the long run, as they are better equipped to take advantage of new opportunities and mitigate risks. Conversely, those unwilling to or unable to adapt can easily be caught off guard by unexpected market shifts, forcing them to miss out on potential gains. 

How to adapt to the market today?

The best way to adapt and stay flexible as a trader is to stay learning, whether following new trends, business ventures, or joining new community chat rooms with other traders to expand your horizons. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly, expecting a different result, traders could have their own wing in a psych ward. That said, if you need to adapt, it sometimes helps to start with a radical change to gain a new perspective; whatever you usually do, try doing the opposite. 

Nauss discusses how people assume that just because of the way something played out before, it must play out again in the future. For instance, after meme stocks like Gamestop and AMC blew up in 2020, everyone was searching for the next one, waiting for the payout they wouldn’t miss this time. But instead, they could be waiting a while, missing opportunities right in front of them, waiting for history to repeat itself. This is why Nauss looks in more unexpected, low-volume centers with no motivated sellers to escape the majority, ready to strike when an opportunity presents itself. 

One of the things he looks for before setting up camp is relative strength. “If the market is selling and the old leaders are falling out of favor, then the stocks that are not being hit have a good chance of the new leaders” (Nauss, 2023). 

Image: https://michaelnausscmt.substack.com/p/fighting-the-last-war 

Zoom is a prime example. As an IPO, it held onto its gains well while steadily making new highs. During the height of the pandemic, when the world as we knew it was crashing, Zoom became a saving grace for businesses and became one of the leaders that led us out of the bear market. Looking for an opportunity in times of crisis, only a few investors became incredibly profitable investing in ZM. However, as word spread and rates started to increase, people realized that video conferencing was everywhere, and it fell from its leadership position. 

Another way you can adapt during this recession is to move forward and look to future investments, where only a few people are looking. In 2008, many people made the mistake of preparing for another recession as soon as the housing crisis ended, stuck in panic mode because of the fear instilled from the past. Instead, it would help if you used this time to start looking for those lower-traffic areas and unmotivated sellers; keep your eyes peeled, ready to pounce at new opportunities. Traders are like sharks; if we stop swimming, we die. 

In conclusion, inflexibility is not a good look for traders and investors. Success is seen in those who choose to look outside the box, leave their comfort zones, know when to accept that the war is over, and make a plan to move forward. The market is unforgiving, exciting, unpredictable, overwhelming, and ever-evolving. Nevertheless, if you can find your rhythm within it, learn to adapt, and ride the wave of change in the stock market, you’ll find yourself at the heart of new opportunities, ideas, and profits.